Central banks are relatively new inventions. An American President
(Andrew Jackson) even cancelled its country's central bank in the
nineteenth century because he did not think that it was very important.
But things have changed since. Central banks today are the most
important feature of the financial systems of most countries of the
world.
Central
banks are a bizarre hybrids. Some of their functions are identical to
the functions of regular, commercial banks. Other functions are unique
to the central bank. On certain functions it has an absolute legal
monopoly.
Central banks take deposits from other banks and, in
certain cases, from foreign governments which deposit their foreign
exchange and gold reserves for safekeeping (for instance, with the
Federal Reserve Bank of the USA). The Central Bank invests the foreign
exchange reserves of the country while trying to maintain an investment
portfolio similar to the trade composition of its client - the state.
The Central bank also holds onto the gold reserves of the country. Most
central banks have lately tried to get rid of their gold, due to its
ever declining prices. Since the gold is registered in their books in
historical values, central banks are showing a handsome profit on this
line of activity. Central banks (especially the American one) also
participate in important, international negotiations. If they do not do
so directly - they exert influence behind the scenes. The German
Bundesbank virtually dictated Germany's position in the negotiations
leading to the Maastricht treaty. It forced the hands of its
co-signatories to agree to strict terms of accession into the Euro
single currency project. The Bunbdesbank demanded that a country's
economy be totally stable (low debt ratios, low inflation) before it is
accepted as part of the Euro. It is an irony of history that Germany
itself is not eligible under these criteria and cannot be accepted as a
member in the club whose rules it has assisted to formulate.
But all these constitute a secondary and marginal portion of a central banks activities.
The
main function of a modern central bank is the monitoring and regulation
of interest rates in the economy. The central bank does this by
changing the interest rates that it charges on money that it lends to
the banking system through its "discount windows". Interest rates is
supposed to influence the level of economic activity in the economy.
This supposed link has not unequivocally proven by economic research.
Also, there usually is a delay between the alteration of interest rates
and the foreseen impact on the economy. This makes assessment of the
interest rate policy difficult. Still, central banks use interest rates
to fine tune the economy. Higher interest rates - lower economic
activity and lower inflation. The reverse is also supposed to be true.
Even shifts of a quarter of a percentage point are sufficient to send
the stock exchanges tumbling together with the bond markets. In 1994 a
long term trend of increase in interest rate commenced in the USA,
doubling interest rates from 3 to 6 percent. Investors in the bond
markets lost 1 trillion (=1000 billion!) USD in 1 year. Even today,
currency traders all around the world dread the decisions of the
Bundesbank and sit with their eyes glued to the trading screen on days
in which announcements are expected.
Interest rates is only the
latest fad. Prior to this - and under the influence of the Chicago
school of economics - central banks used to monitor and manipulate money
supply aggregates. Simply put, they would sell bonds to the public
(and, thus absorb liquid means, money) - or buy from the public (and,
thus, inject liquidity). Otherwise, they would restrict the amount of
printed money and limit the government's ability to borrow. Even prior
to that fashion there was a widespread belief in the effectiveness of
manipulating exchange rates. This was especially true where exchange
controls were still being implemented and the currency was not fully
convertible. Britain removed its exchange controls only as late as 1979.
The USD was pegged to a (gold) standard (and, thus not really freely
tradable) as late as 1971. Free flows of currencies are a relatively new
thing and their long absence reflects this wide held superstition of
central banks. Nowadays, exchange rates are considered to be a "soft"
monetary instrument and are rarely used by central banks. The latter
continue, though, to intervene in the trading of currencies in the
international and domestic markets usually to no avail and while losing
their credibility in the process. Ever since the ignominious failure in
implementing the infamous Louvre accord in 1985 currency intervention is
considered to be a somewhat rusty relic of old ways of thinking.
Central
banks are heavily enmeshed in the very fabric of the commercial banking
system. They perform certain indispensable services for the latter. In
most countries, interbank payments pass through the central bank or
through a clearing organ which is somehow linked or reports to the
central bank. All major foreign exchange transactions pass through -
and, in many countries, still must be approved by - the central bank.
Central banks regulate banks, licence their owners, supervise their
operations, keenly observes their liquidity. The central bank is the
lender of last resort in cases of insolvency or illiquidity.
The
frequent claims of central banks all over the world that they were
surprised by a banking crisis looks, therefore, dubious at best. No
central bank can say that it had no early warning signs, or no access to
all the data - and keep a straight face while saying so. Impending
banking crises give out signs long before they erupt. These signs ought
to be detected by a reasonably managed central bank. Only major neglect
could explain a surprise on behalf of a central bank.
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